Prigozhining
Jun. 26th, 2023 12:50 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
migmitCurrently lots of people — analysts, people who think they're analysts, people who think they are not from the previous category, etc. — offer various theories why Prigozhin's private army, PMC Wagner, stopped at the outskirts of Moscow, about a hundred kilometers from the city. What is strange is that those theories aren't really deranged. Of course there is the expected "it's all smoke and mirrors" theory, according to which Prigozhin and Putin staged all this in order to something (there are several options — provoke Ukraine to do something rush, weed out disloyal elements in Putin's court, create a pretext to tightening Putin's grip on the population etc.) — it is stupid, of course, but, as I said, quite expected. There are more reasonable theories that Prigozhin expected some VIPs to support him, and gave up when none of them did — again, there are variations in who was supposed to support him, like general Surovikin, or Chechen khan Kadyrov. What I'd like to offer is a theory that is actually MORE deranged than what I've seen, just so it isn't boring. So...
1. Prigozhin started his coup in an attempt to save his life. MoD was going to seize his PMC, and that was the only thing keeping him alive.
2. Collective West realized that if the coup gains any real traction, then Russian nuclear weapons (which they think still exist) would get into the hands of what is, essentially, a criminal gang.
3. Western analysts correctly guessed that Prigozhin only cares about his own life.
4. So, Biden, Scholz and Macron discussed this (remember, they did have a conversation during Wagner's march on Moscow) and decided to offer Prigozhin witness protection in US.
5. Since none of them could afford actually talking to a known criminal, they decided to pass that offer through Kartoffelnführer Lukashenko, probably contacting him through German or French embassy.
6. Lukashenko immediately agreed — being useful to the West is his dream, he isn't happy being Putin's doormat.
7. Prigozhin realized what chance he gets and also agreed, since he didn't really expect to hold Moscow for long, even if he managed to seize it.
I think that theory is funnier than pretty much everything I've seen, while maintaining some kind of internal logic.
1. Prigozhin started his coup in an attempt to save his life. MoD was going to seize his PMC, and that was the only thing keeping him alive.
2. Collective West realized that if the coup gains any real traction, then Russian nuclear weapons (which they think still exist) would get into the hands of what is, essentially, a criminal gang.
3. Western analysts correctly guessed that Prigozhin only cares about his own life.
4. So, Biden, Scholz and Macron discussed this (remember, they did have a conversation during Wagner's march on Moscow) and decided to offer Prigozhin witness protection in US.
5. Since none of them could afford actually talking to a known criminal, they decided to pass that offer through Kartoffelnführer Lukashenko, probably contacting him through German or French embassy.
6. Lukashenko immediately agreed — being useful to the West is his dream, he isn't happy being Putin's doormat.
7. Prigozhin realized what chance he gets and also agreed, since he didn't really expect to hold Moscow for long, even if he managed to seize it.
I think that theory is funnier than pretty much everything I've seen, while maintaining some kind of internal logic.
