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migmitLet's be optimistic for a while.
In the fog of this war there happened to be a message — without any specifics, of course — that ruskies' defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, is about to take the fall for the Ukrainian failure. Which kinda makes sense — he is, after all, the defense minister. The message itself is here: https://www.facebook.com/iponomarev/posts/10159994986590802 — in Russian, and, as I said, it doesn't inspire confidence.
So, I feel compelled to write down a certain scenario that I was mulling over for a couple of days now. Specifically: what if Shoigu strikes first?
Let me be clear: I don't think this scenario has any chance of being implemented. Far from it. Let's just treat it as a kind of alternative reality. A book that a future sci-fi author might write (see, I've told you I'm going to be optimistic). Well, let's just writing it start now.
First of all, is it even possible for a member of Khuilo's inner circle to make an attempt to remove his boss? Physically, I mean. Well... the chances aren't good. All of them are spineless yes-men, and people like that only think about surviving one more day. As long as they feel that the current situation, even if bad, presents less risk than any attempt to change it — they would sit tight and pray for a miracle that would turn things to the better.
And if one of them does try to do something desperate — well, others would turn on him immediately. Not because they are so in love with their great leader they can't bear the loss, no. Simply because they would be afraid of him. And also because he would give them a perfect excuse to bury him.
So, any one of them turning on the evil midget has a very small chance of living another day. And that's why one of them might act ONLY if his chances of living another day are going to hell anyway. And that might just happen.
Now, let's say our hero was successful. I can't say how he is going to survive the others. Maybe some posturing would help — like those "wild animal encounter" guides suggest, "make yourself look bigger". Could work, I don't know. But what happens next?
Let's also say that our fictional Shoigu is not completely nuts, and understands that sanctions are bad. What can he do? Pull out of Ukraine, sure. Return Crimea and Donbass. But all of that would only stop the new sanctions. The ones that were already introduced are here to stay. The West is out for blood. How can he get the West to roll most, if not all, of the sanctions back?
Remember I've told you about being optimistic?
He has a big bargaining chip. There is something he CAN offer to the West that is so lucrative that the West would rush to lift the sanctions and give him all the support they have.
Nuclear disarmament.
Let's be quiet for a minute. Let's savour that dream.
Now, back to reality. Can Shoigu do that? Almost certainly not.
Dream, guys. Dream that the current suffering might bring forth a better world. At least we can do that.
In the fog of this war there happened to be a message — without any specifics, of course — that ruskies' defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, is about to take the fall for the Ukrainian failure. Which kinda makes sense — he is, after all, the defense minister. The message itself is here: https://www.facebook.com/iponomarev/posts/10159994986590802 — in Russian, and, as I said, it doesn't inspire confidence.
So, I feel compelled to write down a certain scenario that I was mulling over for a couple of days now. Specifically: what if Shoigu strikes first?
Let me be clear: I don't think this scenario has any chance of being implemented. Far from it. Let's just treat it as a kind of alternative reality. A book that a future sci-fi author might write (see, I've told you I'm going to be optimistic). Well, let's just writing it start now.
First of all, is it even possible for a member of Khuilo's inner circle to make an attempt to remove his boss? Physically, I mean. Well... the chances aren't good. All of them are spineless yes-men, and people like that only think about surviving one more day. As long as they feel that the current situation, even if bad, presents less risk than any attempt to change it — they would sit tight and pray for a miracle that would turn things to the better.
And if one of them does try to do something desperate — well, others would turn on him immediately. Not because they are so in love with their great leader they can't bear the loss, no. Simply because they would be afraid of him. And also because he would give them a perfect excuse to bury him.
So, any one of them turning on the evil midget has a very small chance of living another day. And that's why one of them might act ONLY if his chances of living another day are going to hell anyway. And that might just happen.
Now, let's say our hero was successful. I can't say how he is going to survive the others. Maybe some posturing would help — like those "wild animal encounter" guides suggest, "make yourself look bigger". Could work, I don't know. But what happens next?
Let's also say that our fictional Shoigu is not completely nuts, and understands that sanctions are bad. What can he do? Pull out of Ukraine, sure. Return Crimea and Donbass. But all of that would only stop the new sanctions. The ones that were already introduced are here to stay. The West is out for blood. How can he get the West to roll most, if not all, of the sanctions back?
Remember I've told you about being optimistic?
He has a big bargaining chip. There is something he CAN offer to the West that is so lucrative that the West would rush to lift the sanctions and give him all the support they have.
Nuclear disarmament.
Let's be quiet for a minute. Let's savour that dream.
Now, back to reality. Can Shoigu do that? Almost certainly not.
Dream, guys. Dream that the current suffering might bring forth a better world. At least we can do that.
